What’s Driving This Contradiction?
- The region continues to attract renters with its mix of lifestyle and affordability
- Trade Me Property Sales Director Gavin Lloyd attributes the resilience to localised demand despite higher supply
- Property owners appear to be holding properties rather than selling, feeding into the rental pool
Development Pipeline Data Suggests Future Tightening
- Nationwide, new dwelling consents fell 7.2 percent year on year to January 2025, and Hawke’s Bay followed suit
- By April 2025, regional new dwelling consents dropped another 16 percent, suggesting a contracting pipeline
- This slowdown in construction means fewer rentals are expected to enter the market in the near future
Cautious Optimism for the Short Term
While rents remain strong overall, it’s important to note that:
- The 6.3 percent increase may be skewed by newer, high spec rebuilds or recent developments
- Not all landlords, particularly those with older or mid range properties, may experience the same rent growth
- Vacancy pressures could still affect some segments of the market
- A short period of softening remains possible as listings adjust and tenant demand spreads more thinly
Long Term Outlook Remains Positive
- Hawke’s Bay’s population has grown by 5.2 percent since 2018 and now exceeds 175,000
- With net migration expected to continue and limited new housing underway, demand is likely to catch up with current supply
- Even if the short term sees minor headwinds, the long term picture looks strong for landlords
What Landlords Should Focus On
At Oxygen, we recommend staying closely connected with your property manager during changing market conditions. Our team monitors rental trends weekly to ensure your property remains competitive in both price and features, helping to minimise vacancy time and attract the best tenants.
Landlords might also consider options such as allowing pets or offering small incentives to encourage quicker take up. These can include things like one week’s free rent, flexible move in dates, or assistance with moving costs.
While we may see some short term headwinds, the underlying fundamentals remain strong. With population growth and reduced new housing supply, rental conditions in Hawke’s Bay are expected to improve steadily over the next 12 to 18 months.
